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data-za-detail-view-element_name="User" href="https://www.zhihu.com/people/TuringDon" data-reactid="202">图灵Don</a></div><!-- react-empty: 203 --></div></span></div><div class="AuthorInfo-detail" data-reactid="204"><div class="AuthorInfo-badge" data-reactid="205"><div class="RichText AuthorInfo-badgeText" data-reactid="206">被收藏250000次 洞察和把握未来趋势</div></div></div></div></div><div class="AnswerItem-extraInfo" data-reactid="207"><span class="Voters" data-reactid="208"><button class="Button Button--plain" type="button" data-reactid="209"><!-- react-text: 210 -->55 人赞同了该回答<!-- /react-text --></button><!-- react-empty: 211 --></span></div></div></div><meta itemprop="image" content="https://pic1.zhimg.com/e7009c8d526050d02d2ab19bdab24900_200x112.jpg" data-reactid="212"><meta itemprop="upvoteCount" content="55" data-reactid="213"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/49807749" data-reactid="214"><meta itemprop="dateCreated" content="2015-06-02T06:29:19.000Z" data-reactid="215"><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2015-06-02T06:36:17.000Z" data-reactid="216"><meta itemprop="commentCount" content="23" data-reactid="217"><div class="RichContent RichContent--unescapable" data-reactid="218"><div class="RichContent-inner" data-reactid="219"><span class="RichText CopyrightRichText-richText" itemprop="text" data-reactid="220"><p>日本的老龄化问题相当相当严重，中国在2050年的老龄化水平相当于现在的日本。</p><p>2013年11月，日本65岁以上老年人数占总人口百分比首次超过<b>25%</b>。</p><p>这个国家四分之一的人都是65岁以上老人，三分之一的人都是60岁以上老人，而且老龄化速度还在加快。21世纪看来没日本什么事儿，只有越来越衰落了。</p><p>日本之外，德国、意大利、芬兰这些欧洲国家老龄化问题也比较突出。对比之下，中国其实还好，比起日本、韩国、欧洲大部分地区年轻。</p><p>下为联合国人口署各国60岁以上人口的统计预测：</p>2014年：<br><figure><noscript>&amp;lt;img data-rawheight="2139" data-rawwidth="307" src="https://pic1.zhimg.com/50/e7009c8d526050d02d2ab19bdab24900_hd.jpg" class="content_image" width="307"&amp;gt;</noscript><img data-rawheight="2139" data-rawwidth="307" src="./日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？ - 知乎_files/e7009c8d526050d02d2ab19bdab24900_hd.jpg" class="content_image lazy" width="307" data-actualsrc="https://pic1.zhimg.com/50/e7009c8d526050d02d2ab19bdab24900_hd.jpg"></figure><br>2030年：<br><figure><noscript>&amp;lt;img data-rawheight="2139" data-rawwidth="306" src="https://pic2.zhimg.com/50/a1f24619df52efb986094bb5d31e3a1d_hd.jpg" class="content_image" width="306"&amp;gt;</noscript><span><div data-reactroot="" class="VagueImage content_image" data-src="https://pic2.zhimg.com/50/a1f24619df52efb986094bb5d31e3a1d_hd.jpg" style="width: 306px; height: 2139px;"><div class="VagueImage-mask is-active"></div></div></span></figure><br>2050年：<br><figure><noscript>&amp;lt;img data-rawheight="2139" data-rawwidth="306" src="https://pic4.zhimg.com/50/a449c28d945dad787fcee3bbee8e69c3_hd.jpg" class="content_image" width="306"&amp;gt;</noscript><span><div data-reactroot="" class="VagueImage content_image" data-src="https://pic4.zhimg.com/50/a449c28d945dad787fcee3bbee8e69c3_hd.jpg" style="width: 306px; height: 2139px;"><div class="VagueImage-mask is-active"></div></div></span></figure><br>梁建章提醒我们注意中国的人口问题。注意是必要的，但恐慌是没必要的。我们可以学习现在日本、德国面临深度老龄化社会的应对方式。</span><!-- react-empty: 221 --></div><div data-reactid="222"><div class="ContentItem-time" data-reactid="223"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/49807749" data-reactid="224"><span data-tooltip="发布于 2015-06-02" data-reactid="225"><!-- react-text: 226 -->编辑于 <!-- /react-text --><!-- react-text: 227 -->2015-06-02<!-- /react-text --></span></a></div></div><div><div class="ContentItem-actions Sticky RichContent-actions is-fixed is-bottom" style="width: 694px; bottom: 0px; left: 451.5px;"><span><button class="Button VoteButton VoteButton--up" aria-label="赞同" type="button"><svg viewBox="0 0 20 18" class="Icon VoteButton-upIcon Icon--triangle" width="9" height="16" aria-hidden="true" style="height: 16px; width: 9px;"><title></title><g><path d="M0 15.243c0-.326.088-.533.236-.896l7.98-13.204C8.57.57 9.086 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data-reactid="286"><img class="Avatar AuthorInfo-avatar" width="38" height="38" src="./日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？ - 知乎_files/da8e974dc_xs.jpg" srcset="https://pic1.zhimg.com/50/da8e974dc_l.jpg 2x" alt="知乎用户" data-reactid="287"></span><div class="AuthorInfo-content" data-reactid="288"><div class="AuthorInfo-head" data-reactid="289"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-name" data-reactid="290"><!-- react-text: 291 -->知乎用户<!-- /react-text --></span></div><div class="AuthorInfo-detail" data-reactid="292"><div class="AuthorInfo-badge" data-reactid="293"><!-- react-empty: 294 --></div></div></div></div><div class="AnswerItem-extraInfo" data-reactid="295"><span class="Voters" data-reactid="296"><button class="Button Button--plain" type="button" data-reactid="297"><!-- react-text: 298 -->8 人赞同了该回答<!-- /react-text --></button><!-- react-empty: 299 --></span></div></div></div><meta itemprop="image" content="" data-reactid="300"><meta itemprop="upvoteCount" content="8" data-reactid="301"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/88992559" data-reactid="302"><meta itemprop="dateCreated" content="2016-03-02T22:15:15.000Z" data-reactid="303"><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2016-03-02T22:15:15.000Z" data-reactid="304"><meta itemprop="commentCount" content="3" data-reactid="305"><div class="RichContent RichContent--unescapable" data-reactid="306"><div class="RichContent-inner"><span class="RichText CopyrightRichText-richText" itemprop="text"><p>其实现在中国的老龄化就和日本一样严重了，单就低生育来说。你没发现，老龄化最严重的几个国家不仅仅是因为低生育，而几乎全部是高寿国家么？比如日本、意大利，本来就是世界人均寿命的前三，老龄化有什么意外的？法国、芬兰也是世界人均寿命前列，所以即便人均生育率在发达国家算高的，而且比中国高，老龄化照样比中国严重。说白了，就是过十几年，中国人要是能平均多活十年，老龄化水平会迅速蹿升到世界前列，伴随着低生育率，将来会蹿升到世界第一！！！！！</p><p>以出生率统计比较清晰。江西和辽宁总人口都是4400万，但江西2013一年出生60万人，辽宁一年出生25万人。日本2013年出生103万，总人口1.3亿。乍一看，日本的出生率只是地球上超超超超超超超低出生率的辽宁的1.4倍左右，但实际上，扣除日本人均寿命比辽宁高10岁这个因素，日本的出生率是辽宁的1.6倍！！！！！辽宁的城市化比中国平均早30年，1980年就超过了50%，相当于2010年的全国平均水平。今天的辽宁就是30年后的中国。</p><p>全国来说，2013年总人口13.7亿，出生1600万，但你要是扣除中国人比日本人平均少活15岁这个因素呢？把高出来的那部分人去掉呢？而且2013—2014还是因为上一次高峰85—90延续到这次的回光返照，本世纪2011年以前平均每年就出生1300万人左右。现在的中国低生育率水平已经和日本差不多了！！</p><p>总有人拿人口外流说事，需要指出的是，东北的人口外流不是首要问题，生育率低是首要问题。而且人口老化会加速年轻人外流。1990年的0-14岁人口到2010年为20-34岁，1990年东北的0-14岁人口占全国的7.98%，2010年20-34岁人口占全国的7.93%，只外流了0.7%。而广西、河南却外流25.1%、16.6%，但由于生育率较高，补充了人口，留在本省的20-34岁劳动力占全国比例却基本保持稳定。 而且，东北20年间流出的这0.7%，都是黑龙江吉林流出的，辽宁反倒是净流入省份，才使得其才超超超超超超超低出生率的情况下没有大规模人口崩溃。</p></span><!-- react-empty: 377 --></div><div data-reactid="310"><div class="ContentItem-time" 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react-empty: 561 --><!-- react-empty: 358 --><!-- react-empty: 359 --><!-- react-empty: 562 --><!-- react-empty: 361 --></div></div><div class="List-item"><div class="ContentItem AnswerItem" data-za-index="2" data-zop="{&quot;authorName&quot;:&quot;Justin Liu&quot;,&quot;itemId&quot;:91022290,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;answer&quot;}" name="91022290" itemprop="suggestedAnswer" itemtype="http://schema.org/Answer" itemscope="" data-za-module="AnswerItem" data-za-module-info="{&quot;card&quot;:{&quot;has_image&quot;:false,&quot;has_video&quot;:false,&quot;content&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Answer&quot;,&quot;token&quot;:&quot;91022290&quot;,&quot;upvote_num&quot;:3,&quot;comment_num&quot;:2,&quot;publish_timestamp&quot;:null,&quot;parent_token&quot;:&quot;26630274&quot;,&quot;author_member_hash_id&quot;:&quot;282a3ebac279015805bc7d0749038dcf&quot;}}}"><div class="ContentItem-meta"><div class="AnswerItem-meta AnswerItem-meta--related"><div class="AuthorInfo" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="name" content="Justin Liu"><meta itemprop="image" content="https://pic3.zhimg.com/50/v2-506b603e90bc06bdd79f5bccad36be9e_hd.jpg"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/people/justin-liu-56"><meta itemprop="zhihu:followerCount" content="1425"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-avatarWrapper"><div class="Popover"><div id="Popover-44556-11291-toggle" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false" aria-owns="Popover-44556-11291-content"><a class="UserLink-link" data-za-detail-view-element_name="User" href="https://www.zhihu.com/people/justin-liu-56"><img class="Avatar AuthorInfo-avatar" width="38" height="38" src="./日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？ - 知乎_files/v2-506b603e90bc06bdd79f5bccad36be9e_xs.jpg" srcset="https://pic3.zhimg.com/50/v2-506b603e90bc06bdd79f5bccad36be9e_l.jpg 2x" alt="Justin Liu"></a></div><!-- react-empty: 430 --></div></span><div class="AuthorInfo-content"><div class="AuthorInfo-head"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-name"><div class="Popover"><div id="Popover-44556-54904-toggle" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false" aria-owns="Popover-44556-54904-content"><a class="UserLink-link" data-za-detail-view-element_name="User" href="https://www.zhihu.com/people/justin-liu-56">Justin Liu</a></div><!-- react-empty: 437 --></div></span></div><div class="AuthorInfo-detail"><div class="AuthorInfo-badge"><div class="RichText AuthorInfo-badgeText">elder care创业公司打过酱油</div></div></div></div></div><div class="AnswerItem-extraInfo"><span class="Voters"><button class="Button Button--plain" type="button"><!-- react-text: 444 -->3 人赞同了该回答<!-- /react-text --></button><!-- react-empty: 445 --></span></div></div></div><meta itemprop="image" content="https://pic4.zhimg.com/81958015b0b1b1373cdf52c928d3155f_200x112.jpg"><meta itemprop="upvoteCount" content="3"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/91022290"><meta itemprop="dateCreated" content="2016-03-16T12:06:44.000Z"><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2016-03-22T09:41:53.000Z"><meta itemprop="commentCount" content="2"><div class="RichContent RichContent--unescapable"><div class="RichContent-inner"><span class="RichText CopyrightRichText-richText" itemprop="text"><p>中国的老龄化节奏和日本非常相似，不过有一些不同点：<br>1，老龄化速度快于日本<br>2，国家财政和企业上对老龄化的准备明显不足<br>3，个人储蓄准备比日本强<br>4，预期寿命少于日本<br>5，最终的老龄化程度和延续时间，预计会少于日本(因为老龄化快，且预期寿命短)</p><p>如果说日本的老龄化是越陷越深无法回头的慢性病的话，中国的老龄化目前来看是一场急性癌症，可能会直接要了中国的老命，也可能会熬过去。这要看政府的智慧和胆魄了。</p><br><p>-----------------我是硬广的分割线----------------------</p><p>欢迎大家关注乐龄创业社（乐创社）</p><p><b>乐创社</b>由ACCESS Health International 基金会和清华启迪之星孵化器联合推出，致力于通过资源分享，专业知识交流，创业教育培训和种子资金激励服务于老年人需要的创业项目。</p><p>乐创社是面向创业家、投资者、行业从业者及研究人员的高效的创业者社区和有利的学习资源平台，通过各类线下线上活动，吸引各方创业者交流学习，合作创新，共同助力项目从0到1的跨越。同时，我们将在乐创社内建立一个专注于乐龄产业的投资者俱乐部，为优秀项目进行有效的融资对接，协助整合乐龄产业上下游资源，旨在帮助项目从1到 N快速成长。</p>了解更多内容，请登录摩登乐龄项目官方网站： <a href="https://link.zhihu.com/?target=http%3A//modernaging.org/" class=" wrap external" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Modern Aging<i class="icon-external"></i></a>， 或扫码关注ACCESS 微信公共号，或联系justinian.liu@accessh.org，谢谢大家。<br><figure><noscript>&amp;lt;img src="https://pic4.zhimg.com/50/81958015b0b1b1373cdf52c928d3155f_hd.jpg" data-rawwidth="430" data-rawheight="430" class="origin_image zh-lightbox-thumb" width="430" data-original="https://pic4.zhimg.com/81958015b0b1b1373cdf52c928d3155f_r.jpg"&amp;gt;</noscript><span><div data-reactroot="" class="VagueImage origin_image zh-lightbox-thumb" data-src="https://pic4.zhimg.com/50/81958015b0b1b1373cdf52c928d3155f_hd.jpg" style="width: 430px; height: 430px;"><div class="VagueImage-mask is-active"></div></div></span></figure></span><!-- react-empty: 455 --></div><div><div class="ContentItem-time"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/91022290"><span data-tooltip="发布于 2016-03-16"><!-- react-text: 460 -->编辑于 <!-- /react-text --><!-- react-text: 461 -->2016-03-22<!-- /react-text 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data-za-module-info="{&quot;card&quot;:{&quot;has_image&quot;:false,&quot;has_video&quot;:false,&quot;content&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Answer&quot;,&quot;token&quot;:&quot;49816862&quot;,&quot;upvote_num&quot;:10,&quot;comment_num&quot;:2,&quot;publish_timestamp&quot;:null,&quot;parent_token&quot;:&quot;26630274&quot;,&quot;author_member_hash_id&quot;:&quot;ad602fc8f79b84d0e11073ab59ad62a8&quot;}}}"><div class="ContentItem-meta"><div class="AnswerItem-meta AnswerItem-meta--related"><div class="AuthorInfo" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="name" content="知乎用户"><meta itemprop="image" content="https://pic1.zhimg.com/50/da8e974dc_hd.jpg"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/people/"><meta itemprop="zhihu:followerCount" content="336"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-avatarWrapper"><img class="Avatar AuthorInfo-avatar" width="38" height="38" src="./日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？ - 知乎_files/da8e974dc_xs.jpg" srcset="https://pic1.zhimg.com/50/da8e974dc_l.jpg 2x" alt="知乎用户"></span><div class="AuthorInfo-content"><div class="AuthorInfo-head"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-name"><!-- react-text: 581 -->知乎用户<!-- /react-text --></span></div><div class="AuthorInfo-detail"><div class="AuthorInfo-badge"><!-- react-empty: 584 --></div></div></div></div><div class="AnswerItem-extraInfo"><span class="Voters"><button class="Button Button--plain" type="button"><!-- react-text: 588 -->10 人赞同了该回答<!-- /react-text --></button><!-- react-empty: 589 --></span></div></div></div><meta itemprop="image" content=""><meta itemprop="upvoteCount" content="10"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/49816862"><meta itemprop="dateCreated" content="2015-06-02T07:44:41.000Z"><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2015-06-02T07:44:41.000Z"><meta itemprop="commentCount" content="2"><div class="RichContent RichContent--unescapable"><div class="RichContent-inner"><span class="RichText CopyrightRichText-richText" itemprop="text">日本是在迈入发达国家后老龄化，中国未富先老，现在社保缺口已经很大了。</span><!-- react-empty: 739 --></div><div><div class="ContentItem-time"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/49816862">发布于 2015-06-02</a></div></div><div class="ContentItem-actions"><span><button class="Button VoteButton VoteButton--up" aria-label="赞同" type="button"><svg viewBox="0 0 20 18" class="Icon VoteButton-upIcon Icon--triangle" width="9" height="16" aria-hidden="true" style="height: 16px; width: 9px;"><title></title><g><path d="M0 15.243c0-.326.088-.533.236-.896l7.98-13.204C8.57.57 9.086 0 10 0s1.43.57 1.784 1.143l7.98 13.204c.15.363.236.57.236.896 0 1.386-.875 1.9-1.955 1.9H1.955c-1.08 0-1.955-.517-1.955-1.9z"></path></g></svg><!-- react-text: 746 -->10<!-- /react-text --></button><button class="Button VoteButton VoteButton--down" aria-label="反对" type="button"><svg viewBox="0 0 20 18" class="Icon VoteButton-downIcon Icon--triangle" width="9" height="16" 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react-text: 777 -->感谢<!-- /react-text --></button></div></div><!-- react-empty: 646 --><!-- react-empty: 832 --><!-- react-empty: 648 --><!-- react-empty: 649 --><!-- react-empty: 833 --><!-- react-empty: 651 --></div></div><div class="List-item"><div class="ContentItem AnswerItem" data-za-index="4" data-zop="{&quot;authorName&quot;:&quot;匿名用户&quot;,&quot;itemId&quot;:91511838,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;answer&quot;}" name="91511838" itemprop="suggestedAnswer" itemtype="http://schema.org/Answer" itemscope="" data-za-module="AnswerItem" data-za-module-info="{&quot;card&quot;:{&quot;has_image&quot;:false,&quot;has_video&quot;:false,&quot;content&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Answer&quot;,&quot;token&quot;:&quot;91511838&quot;,&quot;upvote_num&quot;:1,&quot;comment_num&quot;:0,&quot;publish_timestamp&quot;:null,&quot;parent_token&quot;:&quot;26630274&quot;,&quot;author_member_hash_id&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}}}"><div class="ContentItem-meta"><div class="AnswerItem-meta AnswerItem-meta--related"><div class="AuthorInfo" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="name" content="匿名用户"><meta itemprop="image" content="https://pic2.zhimg.com/50/aadd7b895_hd.jpg"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/people/"><meta itemprop="zhihu:followerCount" content="0"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-avatarWrapper"><img class="Avatar AuthorInfo-avatar" width="38" height="38" src="./日本和中国社会的老龄化有什么分别，以及影响？ - 知乎_files/aadd7b895_xs.jpg" srcset="https://pic2.zhimg.com/50/aadd7b895_l.jpg 2x" alt="匿名用户"></span><div class="AuthorInfo-content"><div class="AuthorInfo-head"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-name"><!-- react-text: 666 -->匿名用户<!-- /react-text --></span></div><div class="AuthorInfo-detail"><div class="AuthorInfo-badge"><!-- react-empty: 669 --></div></div></div></div><div class="AnswerItem-extraInfo"><span class="Voters"><button class="Button Button--plain" type="button"><!-- react-text: 673 -->1 人赞同了该回答<!-- /react-text --></button><!-- react-empty: 674 --></span></div></div></div><meta itemprop="image" content=""><meta itemprop="upvoteCount" content="1"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/91511838"><meta itemprop="dateCreated" content="2016-03-19T18:48:12.000Z"><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2016-03-19T18:48:12.000Z"><meta itemprop="commentCount" content="0"><div class="RichContent RichContent--unescapable"><div class="RichContent-inner"><span class="RichText CopyrightRichText-richText" itemprop="text">没有数据，随便扯点。<br>首先，日本比中国进入老龄化社会的时间要早，中国是2000年后才进入老龄化，但日本至少要早十几年。其次，由于日本人均预期寿命比中国高出10岁左右，日本的老龄化更多地呈现出顶部老龄化的特征。中国的老龄化主要是由生育率急速下降造成的，更多地呈现出底部老龄化的特征。第三，日本经历老龄化的时间更长，应对老龄化的经验丰富。虽然两国都有尊老爱老的文化氛围，但日本老人在适应退休后角色转换、社会活动参与等方面的表现更好。在日本农村，农协会积极组织老年人的生活技能培训和社会参与工作，对高龄老人和孤寡老人，会给予极大的照顾(24小时呼救系统、洗头洗澡等生活照料，还有专门人员对老人的生活进行监控等)。这些是值得我们国家学习和借鉴的。<br>至于社会影响，老龄化导致劳动力短缺 社会保障负担加重等等问题是显而易见的。但是，先进的老龄化理念能让我们更好地应对老龄化问题。像上面所提到的日本农协的措施，明显是积极老龄化和生产性老龄化等理念的体现。其实，老年人本身是较好的人力资源。老龄化的社会影响并非不可控，所以它的影响并非绝对的。正如日本，即使在老龄化和少子化并行的农村地区，老年人还是活得独立、自在。</span><!-- react-empty: 780 --></div><div><div class="ContentItem-time"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/26630274/answer/91511838">发布于 2016-03-20</a></div></div><div class="ContentItem-actions"><span><button class="Button VoteButton VoteButton--up" aria-label="赞同" type="button"><svg viewBox="0 0 20 18" class="Icon VoteButton-upIcon Icon--triangle" width="9" height="16" aria-hidden="true" style="height: 16px; width: 9px;"><title></title><g><path d="M0 15.243c0-.326.088-.533.236-.896l7.98-13.204C8.57.57 9.086 0 10 0s1.43.57 1.784 1.143l7.98 13.204c.15.363.236.57.236.896 0 1.386-.875 1.9-1.955 1.9H1.955c-1.08 0-1.955-.517-1.955-1.9z"></path></g></svg><!-- react-text: 787 -->1<!-- /react-text --></button><button class="Button VoteButton VoteButton--down" aria-label="反对" type="button"><svg viewBox="0 0 20 18" 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